{
  "run": "579-convention-bounce",
  "as_of": "2026-10-23",
  "source": "The American Presidency Project (UCSB), 'The Post-Convention Bounce in Voter Preference, 1964-2024' (node/324134) -- Gallup-sourced 1964-2012, APP's own RCP/538 calc 2016-2024 -- joined to Wikipedia's 'List of United States presidential elections by popular vote margin' (cited to Washington Post 2024 + UCSB 2024). Substituted for backlog item #9's 'Wikipedia polling' citation: there is no isolable VP-pick polling dataset, but the convention bounce itself -- cited in the same backlog line -- has a clean, cross-sourced historical table.",
  "n": 16,
  "main_fit": {
    "slope": 0.3536,
    "slope_ci95": [
      -1.132,
      1.8391
    ],
    "r2": 0.0183,
    "p": 0.6176744622350258,
    "n": 16,
    "intercept": -0.5874
  },
  "comparative_test": {
    "description": "did the nominee with the bigger convention bounce go on to win the national popular vote?",
    "n_decisive": 15,
    "n_ties_excluded": 1,
    "n_correct": 8,
    "win_rate": 0.5333,
    "binom_p": 1.0,
    "binom_ci95": [
      0.3012,
      0.7519
    ]
  },
  "bounce_shrinking_trend": {
    "description": "pooled |bounce| (both parties, both nominees, 32 nominee-cycles) vs year",
    "slope_pts_per_year": -0.0761,
    "slope_ci95": [
      -0.14168,
      -0.01053
    ],
    "r2": 0.1577,
    "p": 0.024402801937409728,
    "n": 32
  },
  "sensitivity_drop_1972_1984": {
    "description": "main fit with the two biggest wrong-direction landslides (1972, 1984) dropped",
    "slope": -0.0528,
    "slope_ci95": [
      -1.3786,
      1.2731
    ],
    "r2": 0.0006,
    "p": 0.9323450668855728,
    "n": 14
  },
  "table": [
    {
      "year": 1964,
      "dem_bounce": 3.0,
      "rep_bounce": 5.0,
      "bounce_margin_dem": -2.0,
      "dem_margin_actual": 22.58,
      "winner_party": "Dem",
      "bounce_called_it": false
    },
    {
      "year": 1968,
      "dem_bounce": 2.0,
      "rep_bounce": 5.0,
      "bounce_margin_dem": -3.0,
      "dem_margin_actual": -0.7,
      "winner_party": "Rep",
      "bounce_called_it": true
    },
    {
      "year": 1972,
      "dem_bounce": 0.0,
      "rep_bounce": 7.0,
      "bounce_margin_dem": -7.0,
      "dem_margin_actual": -23.15,
      "winner_party": "Rep",
      "bounce_called_it": true
    },
    {
      "year": 1976,
      "dem_bounce": 9.0,
      "rep_bounce": 5.0,
      "bounce_margin_dem": 4.0,
      "dem_margin_actual": 2.06,
      "winner_party": "Dem",
      "bounce_called_it": true
    },
    {
      "year": 1980,
      "dem_bounce": 10.0,
      "rep_bounce": 8.0,
      "bounce_margin_dem": 2.0,
      "dem_margin_actual": -9.74,
      "winner_party": "Rep",
      "bounce_called_it": false
    },
    {
      "year": 1984,
      "dem_bounce": 9.0,
      "rep_bounce": 4.0,
      "bounce_margin_dem": 5.0,
      "dem_margin_actual": -18.21,
      "winner_party": "Rep",
      "bounce_called_it": false
    },
    {
      "year": 1988,
      "dem_bounce": 7.0,
      "rep_bounce": 6.0,
      "bounce_margin_dem": 1.0,
      "dem_margin_actual": -7.72,
      "winner_party": "Rep",
      "bounce_called_it": false
    },
    {
      "year": 1992,
      "dem_bounce": 16.0,
      "rep_bounce": 5.0,
      "bounce_margin_dem": 11.0,
      "dem_margin_actual": 5.56,
      "winner_party": "Dem",
      "bounce_called_it": true
    },
    {
      "year": 1996,
      "dem_bounce": 5.0,
      "rep_bounce": 3.0,
      "bounce_margin_dem": 2.0,
      "dem_margin_actual": 8.51,
      "winner_party": "Dem",
      "bounce_called_it": true
    },
    {
      "year": 2000,
      "dem_bounce": 8.0,
      "rep_bounce": 8.0,
      "bounce_margin_dem": 0.0,
      "dem_margin_actual": 0.51,
      "winner_party": "Rep",
      "bounce_called_it": null
    },
    {
      "year": 2004,
      "dem_bounce": -1.0,
      "rep_bounce": 2.0,
      "bounce_margin_dem": -3.0,
      "dem_margin_actual": -2.46,
      "winner_party": "Rep",
      "bounce_called_it": true
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "dem_bounce": 4.0,
      "rep_bounce": 6.0,
      "bounce_margin_dem": -2.0,
      "dem_margin_actual": 7.27,
      "winner_party": "Dem",
      "bounce_called_it": false
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "dem_bounce": 2.0,
      "rep_bounce": -1.0,
      "bounce_margin_dem": 3.0,
      "dem_margin_actual": 3.86,
      "winner_party": "Dem",
      "bounce_called_it": true
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "dem_bounce": 2.0,
      "rep_bounce": 3.0,
      "bounce_margin_dem": -1.0,
      "dem_margin_actual": 2.09,
      "winner_party": "Rep",
      "bounce_called_it": false
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "dem_bounce": 0.0,
      "rep_bounce": 1.0,
      "bounce_margin_dem": -1.0,
      "dem_margin_actual": 4.45,
      "winner_party": "Dem",
      "bounce_called_it": false
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "dem_bounce": 0.0,
      "rep_bounce": 1.0,
      "bounce_margin_dem": -1.0,
      "dem_margin_actual": -1.48,
      "winner_party": "Rep",
      "bounce_called_it": true
    }
  ]
}