{
 "meta": {
  "pulled": "2026-09-12",
  "wage_first": "1997-01-01",
  "wage_last": "2026-08-01",
  "n_months": 355,
  "missing_months": [
   "2025-10-01",
   "2026-09-01",
   "2026-10-01",
   "2026-11-01",
   "2026-12-01"
  ],
  "split": "2025-01-01",
  "first_positive_month": "2002-08-01"
 },
 "levels_at": [
  {
   "date": "2019-06-01",
   "top": 3.1,
   "bottom": 4.5,
   "gap": -1.4
  },
  {
   "date": "2022-07-01",
   "top": 3.9,
   "bottom": 7.6,
   "gap": -3.7
  },
  {
   "date": "2024-06-01",
   "top": 4.7,
   "bottom": 5.3,
   "gap": -0.6
  },
  {
   "date": "2024-12-01",
   "top": 5.0,
   "bottom": 4.3,
   "gap": 0.7
  },
  {
   "date": "2025-06-01",
   "top": 4.8,
   "bottom": 3.6,
   "gap": 1.2
  },
  {
   "date": "2025-08-01",
   "top": 4.6,
   "bottom": 3.4,
   "gap": 1.2
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-01-01",
   "top": 3.9,
   "bottom": 3.5,
   "gap": 0.4
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-08-01",
   "top": 3.8,
   "bottom": 3.7,
   "gap": 0.1
  }
 ],
 "june_snapshots": [
  {
   "date": "2019-06-01",
   "gap": -1.4
  },
  {
   "date": "2020-06-01",
   "gap": -1.3
  },
  {
   "date": "2021-06-01",
   "gap": -1.4
  },
  {
   "date": "2022-06-01",
   "gap": -3.6
  },
  {
   "date": "2023-06-01",
   "gap": -0.9
  },
  {
   "date": "2024-06-01",
   "gap": -0.6
  },
  {
   "date": "2025-06-01",
   "gap": 1.2
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-06-01",
   "gap": 0.2
  }
 ],
 "history": {
  "max": 1.4,
  "max_date": "2012-02-01",
  "min": -3.7,
  "min_date": "2022-07-01",
  "pct_months_positive": 34.1,
  "mean_1997_2018": -0.32,
  "mean_2011_2013": 0.99
 },
 "annual": [
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   "year": 1997,
   "mean_gap": -2.06,
   "mean_top": 3.69,
   "mean_bot": 5.75,
   "n": 12
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  {
   "year": 1998,
   "mean_gap": -2.5,
   "mean_top": 4.36,
   "mean_bot": 6.86,
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  {
   "year": 1999,
   "mean_gap": -1.37,
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  {
   "year": 2000,
   "mean_gap": -0.98,
   "mean_top": 4.68,
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   "n": 12
  },
  {
   "year": 2001,
   "mean_gap": -1.06,
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  {
   "year": 2002,
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   "mean_top": 4.78,
   "mean_bot": 4.91,
   "n": 12
  },
  {
   "year": 2003,
   "mean_gap": 0.56,
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   "n": 12
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  {
   "year": 2004,
   "mean_gap": 0.49,
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   "mean_bot": 3.12,
   "n": 12
  },
  {
   "year": 2005,
   "mean_gap": 0.38,
   "mean_top": 3.83,
   "mean_bot": 3.45,
   "n": 12
  },
  {
   "year": 2006,
   "mean_gap": 0.12,
   "mean_top": 3.92,
   "mean_bot": 3.8,
   "n": 12
  },
  {
   "year": 2007,
   "mean_gap": -0.23,
   "mean_top": 4.07,
   "mean_bot": 4.29,
   "n": 12
  },
  {
   "year": 2008,
   "mean_gap": -0.57,
   "mean_top": 3.97,
   "mean_bot": 4.54,
   "n": 12
  },
  {
   "year": 2009,
   "mean_gap": -0.02,
   "mean_top": 3.54,
   "mean_bot": 3.56,
   "n": 12
  },
  {
   "year": 2010,
   "mean_gap": -0.07,
   "mean_top": 2.16,
   "mean_bot": 2.22,
   "n": 12
  },
  {
   "year": 2011,
   "mean_gap": 0.83,
   "mean_top": 2.3,
   "mean_bot": 1.47,
   "n": 12
  },
  {
   "year": 2012,
   "mean_gap": 1.09,
   "mean_top": 2.28,
   "mean_bot": 1.18,
   "n": 12
  },
  {
   "year": 2013,
   "mean_gap": 1.06,
   "mean_top": 2.46,
   "mean_bot": 1.4,
   "n": 12
  },
  {
   "year": 2014,
   "mean_gap": 0.04,
   "mean_top": 2.17,
   "mean_bot": 2.12,
   "n": 12
  },
  {
   "year": 2015,
   "mean_gap": -0.42,
   "mean_top": 2.81,
   "mean_bot": 3.22,
   "n": 12
  },
  {
   "year": 2016,
   "mean_gap": -0.75,
   "mean_top": 3.08,
   "mean_bot": 3.82,
   "n": 12
  },
  {
   "year": 2017,
   "mean_gap": -0.69,
   "mean_top": 3.32,
   "mean_bot": 4.02,
   "n": 12
  },
  {
   "year": 2018,
   "mean_gap": -0.89,
   "mean_top": 3.06,
   "mean_bot": 3.95,
   "n": 12
  },
  {
   "year": 2019,
   "mean_gap": -1.38,
   "mean_top": 3.09,
   "mean_bot": 4.48,
   "n": 12
  },
  {
   "year": 2020,
   "mean_gap": -1.32,
   "mean_top": 3.17,
   "mean_bot": 4.49,
   "n": 12
  },
  {
   "year": 2021,
   "mean_gap": -1.68,
   "mean_top": 2.9,
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  {
   "year": 2022,
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  {
   "year": 2023,
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  {
   "year": 2024,
   "mean_gap": -0.22,
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  {
   "year": 2025,
   "mean_gap": 0.92,
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  {
   "year": 2026,
   "mean_gap": 0.22,
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  }
 ],
 "window": {
  "n": 91,
  "n_pre": 72,
  "n_post": 19
 },
 "M1_trend": {
  "classical": {
   "n": 91,
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  },
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   "n": 91,
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   "se_kind": "NW-HAC(13)",
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    "coef": 0.3398,
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    ],
    "p": 0.0011257436326963233,
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   }
  }
 },
 "M2_interaction": {
  "classical": {
   "n": 91,
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   "se_kind": "classical",
   "t": {
    "coef": 0.1448,
    "se": 0.059,
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     0.0275,
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   },
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    "coef": 2.1873,
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    "p": 2.0882493501102967e-06,
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   },
   "tD": {
    "coef": -0.794,
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     -1.6051,
     0.017
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    "p": 0.05488647597896603,
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   }
  },
  "hac13": {
   "n": 91,
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    "se": 0.1478,
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    "coef": -0.794,
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     -1.0896,
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    "p": 1.4031947967250876e-07,
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  },
  "hac24": {
   "n": 91,
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   "se_kind": "NW-HAC(24)",
   "t": {
    "coef": 0.1448,
    "se": 0.1614,
    "ci": [
     -0.1715,
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    "p": 0.369558812739577,
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   },
   "D": {
    "coef": 2.1873,
    "se": 0.7539,
    "ci": [
     0.7098,
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    "p": 0.0037136164548364483,
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   },
   "tD": {
    "coef": -0.794,
    "se": 0.144,
    "ci": [
     -1.0763,
     -0.5117
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    "p": 3.533658318306044e-08,
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   }
  }
 },
 "M3_step": {
  "classical": {
   "n": 91,
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   "se_kind": "classical",
   "t": {
    "coef": 0.1282,
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     0.0103,
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    ],
    "p": 0.03341479468125459,
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   },
   "D": {
    "coef": 1.6207,
    "se": 0.3216,
    "ci": [
     0.9816,
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    ],
    "p": 2.4692022826350355e-06,
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   }
  },
  "hac13": {
   "n": 91,
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   "se_kind": "NW-HAC(13)",
   "t": {
    "coef": 0.1282,
    "se": 0.1446,
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     -0.1552,
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    "p": 0.37525541560151665,
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   },
   "D": {
    "coef": 1.6207,
    "se": 0.7609,
    "ci": [
     0.1293,
     3.1121
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    "p": 0.03317731636563263,
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   }
  },
  "hac24": {
   "n": 91,
   "r2": 0.5085954549474034,
   "se_kind": "NW-HAC(24)",
   "t": {
    "coef": 0.1282,
    "se": 0.1548,
    "ci": [
     -0.1752,
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    "p": 0.4076225576801247,
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   },
   "D": {
    "coef": 1.6207,
    "se": 0.7497,
    "ci": [
     0.1513,
     3.0901
    ],
    "p": 0.03063572415937595,
    "excludes_zero": true
   }
  }
 },
 "M3_split_2024_10": {
  "n": 91,
  "r2": 0.5724059103789013,
  "se_kind": "NW-HAC(13)",
  "t": {
   "coef": 0.0563,
   "se": 0.1516,
   "ci": [
    -0.2408,
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   ],
   "p": 0.7102628452305044,
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  },
  "D": {
   "coef": 1.9599,
   "se": 0.8346,
   "ci": [
    0.3241,
    3.5957
   ],
   "p": 0.018860929376075457,
   "excludes_zero": true
  }
 },
 "M3_split_2024_07": {
  "n": 91,
  "r2": 0.5832128730313781,
  "se_kind": "NW-HAC(13)",
  "t": {
   "coef": 0.0197,
   "se": 0.1692,
   "ci": [
    -0.312,
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   ],
   "p": 0.9072087815223095,
   "excludes_zero": false
  },
  "D": {
   "coef": 2.0383,
   "se": 0.9581,
   "ci": [
    0.1605,
    3.9161
   ],
   "p": 0.0333817429363016,
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  }
 },
 "pre_fit_2019_2024": {
  "classical": {
   "n": 72,
   "r2": 0.06559722186760386,
   "se_kind": "classical",
   "t": {
    "coef": 0.1448,
    "se": 0.0653,
    "ci": [
     0.0145,
     0.2751
    ],
    "p": 0.029887899242898305,
    "excludes_zero": true
   }
  },
  "hac13": {
   "n": 72,
   "r2": 0.06559722186760386,
   "se_kind": "NW-HAC(13)",
   "t": {
    "coef": 0.1448,
    "se": 0.1478,
    "ci": [
     -0.1448,
     0.4344
    ],
    "p": 0.32703449791273553,
    "excludes_zero": false
   }
  }
 },
 "post_fit_2025_on": {
  "classical": {
   "n": 19,
   "r2": 0.6716469789767767,
   "se_kind": "classical",
   "t": {
    "coef": -0.6492,
    "se": 0.1101,
    "ci": [
     -0.8815,
     -0.4169
    ],
    "p": 1.7581875301521354e-05,
    "excludes_zero": true
   }
  },
  "hac13": {
   "n": 19,
   "r2": 0.6716469789767767,
   "se_kind": "NW-HAC(13)",
   "t": {
    "coef": -0.6492,
    "se": 0.1348,
    "ci": [
     -0.9133,
     -0.3851
    ],
    "p": 1.4522904133962157e-06,
    "excludes_zero": true
   }
  }
 },
 "era_means": {
  "pre_2019_2024": {
   "mean": -1.486,
   "se": 0.352,
   "ci": [
    -2.188,
    -0.785
   ],
   "p": 7.007607326947607e-05,
   "n": 72,
   "excludes_zero": true,
   "classical_ci": [
    -1.718,
    -1.254
   ]
  },
  "y2025": {
   "mean": 0.918,
   "se": 0.049,
   "ci": [
    0.809,
    1.027
   ],
   "p": 3.957528749154449e-09,
   "n": 11,
   "excludes_zero": true,
   "classical_ci": [
    0.76,
    1.077
   ]
  },
  "y2026": {
   "mean": 0.225,
   "se": 0.051,
   "ci": [
    0.105,
    0.345
   ],
   "p": 0.0030394943095228832,
   "n": 8,
   "excludes_zero": true,
   "classical_ci": [
    0.118,
    0.332
   ]
  }
 },
 "era_mean_diff_2025plus_vs_pre": {
  "classical": {
   "n": 91,
   "r2": 0.48251889191703157,
   "se_kind": "classical",
   "D": {
    "coef": 2.1124,
    "se": 0.2319,
    "ci": [
     1.6517,
     2.5732
    ],
    "p": 2.226354403652167e-14,
    "excludes_zero": true
   }
  },
  "hac13": {
   "n": 91,
   "r2": 0.48251889191703157,
   "se_kind": "NW-HAC(13)",
   "D": {
    "coef": 2.1124,
    "se": 0.3679,
    "ci": [
     1.3914,
     2.8335
    ],
    "p": 9.359383015722006e-09,
    "excludes_zero": true
   }
  }
 },
 "narrowing": {
  "slope_2026": {
   "classical": {
    "n": 8,
    "r2": 0.7474120082816049,
    "se_kind": "classical",
    "t": {
     "coef": -0.5429,
     "se": 0.1288,
     "ci": [
      -0.8581,
      -0.2276
     ],
     "p": 0.005601021575373358,
     "excludes_zero": true
    }
   }
  },
  "mean_2026_vs0": {
   "mean": 0.225,
   "se": 0.051,
   "ci": [
    0.105,
    0.345
   ],
   "p": 0.0030394943095228832,
   "n": 8,
   "excludes_zero": true,
   "classical_ci": [
    0.118,
    0.332
   ]
  },
  "power_note": "8 monthly points of a 12-month moving average carry less than one independent year of information; HAC with n=8 cannot rescue it",
  "peak_to_latest_descriptive": {
   "peak_date": "2025-06-01",
   "peak": 1.2,
   "n": 14,
   "r2": 0.9217188830739744,
   "se_kind": "classical",
   "t": {
    "coef": -1.07,
    "se": 0.09,
    "ci": [
     -1.2661,
     -0.8739
    ],
    "p": 5.374690728336415e-08,
    "excludes_zero": true
   }
  }
 },
 "bootstrap": {
  "kind": "4000 draws, stratified calendar-year blocks resampled with replacement (6 pre-era blocks from 2019-2024, 2 post-era from 2025-2026, every draw estimable)",
  "M3_level_shift_D": {
   "ci": [
    -0.0592,
    5.6014
   ],
   "pct_positive": 97.0,
   "median": 1.4946
  },
  "M2_slope_change_tD": {
   "ci": [
    -1.3243,
    0.1679
   ],
   "pct_positive": 5.6,
   "median": -0.7084
  },
  "era_mean_diff_2025plus_vs_pre": {
   "ci": [
    1.2692,
    2.9416
   ],
   "pct_positive": 100.0,
   "median": 2.0729
  },
  "note": "the post-2025 era is only 2 year-blocks (2025, 2026); a block bootstrap of it ALONE is degenerate and was not run"
 },
 "annual_welch_vs_window": {
  "comparison": "2025-2026 vs 2019-2024 (the wage window, annual unit)",
  "mean_post": 0.57,
  "mean_pre": -1.49,
  "diff": 2.06,
  "ci": [
   0.58,
   3.53
  ],
  "t": 3.9,
  "dof": 3.9,
  "p": 0.018524382944506854,
  "n_post": 2,
  "n_pre": 6,
  "excludes_zero": true,
  "note": "each calendar year treated as ONE observation -- the power floor"
 },
 "annual_welch_vs_history": {
  "comparison": "2025-2026 vs all 1997-2024 (is the hump unusual in 29 years?)",
  "mean_post": 0.57,
  "mean_pre": -0.57,
  "diff": 1.14,
  "ci": [
   -0.88,
   3.16
  ],
  "t": 2.85,
  "dof": 1.7,
  "p": 0.1230308232672992,
  "n_post": 2,
  "n_pre": 28,
  "excludes_zero": false,
  "note": "each calendar year treated as ONE observation -- the power floor"
 },
 "annual_step": {
  "n": 8,
  "r2": 0.6166752202746464,
  "se_kind": "classical",
  "t": {
   "coef": 0.1386,
   "se": 0.2478,
   "ci": [
    -0.5495,
    0.8266
   ],
   "p": 0.6058641430174645,
   "excludes_zero": false
  },
  "D": {
   "coef": 1.92,
   "se": 1.4164,
   "ci": [
    -2.0124,
    5.8524
   ],
   "p": 0.2467160923511627,
   "excludes_zero": false
  },
  "tD": {
   "coef": -0.8386,
   "se": 1.4869,
   "ci": [
    -4.9668,
    3.2896
   ],
   "p": 0.6028838112472898,
   "excludes_zero": false
  }
 },
 "annual_means_diff": {
  "mean_2025": 0.92,
  "mean_2024": -0.22,
  "mean_2026": 0.22
 },
 "wealth": {
  "levels_at": [
   {
    "date": "1989-07-01",
    "top1": 22.8,
    "next40": 35.7,
    "bot50": 3.5,
    "implied_next9": 38.0
   },
   {
    "date": "2019-01-01",
    "top1": 30.6,
    "next40": 28.2,
    "bot50": 1.6,
    "implied_next9": 39.6
   },
   {
    "date": "2021-01-01",
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  "top1_first_exceeds_next40": "2014-01-01"
 }
}