{
 "race": "2026 Texas US Senate: Ken Paxton (R) vs James Talarico (D)",
 "classification": {
  "incumbent_seat_holder": "John Cornyn (R), candidate_id S2TX00106",
  "cornyn_status": "lost 2026-05-26 GOP runoff to Paxton 63.8%-36.2%, off Nov ballot",
  "fec_incumbent_challenge_paxton": "Challenger",
  "fec_incumbent_challenge_talarico": "Challenger",
  "classification_used": "open seat (no incumbent on the general-election ballot)"
 },
 "fec_totals_thru": "2026-06-30T00:00:00",
 "paxton_receipts": 9248698.53,
 "paxton_disbursements": 7492915.18,
 "talarico_receipts": 68555930.42,
 "talarico_disbursements": 47007775.34,
 "talarico_spend_share": 0.8625170597196317,
 "race_level_all_prediction": {
  "predicted_talarico_two_party_share": 0.5925812893697545,
  "pi_lo_talarico_share": 0.4525608049695835,
  "pi_hi_talarico_share": 0.7326017737699255,
  "paxton_margin_point": -18.516257873950902,
  "paxton_margin_lo": -46.5203547539851,
  "paxton_margin_hi": 9.487839006083298,
  "interval_width_pts": 56.0081937600684
 },
 "race_level_open_seat_intercept_slope": {
  "intercept": 0.3379712199586095,
  "slope": 0.23335219594207637,
  "n": 43
 },
 "senate_506_reference_table": {
  "pooled": {
   "slope": 10.672974808912288,
   "ci": [
    9.270868134606708,
    12.075081483217868
   ],
   "n": 494
  },
  "challenger": {
   "slope": 8.601568382944322,
   "ci": [
    7.2666649963330805,
    9.936471769555563
   ],
   "n": 203
  },
  "open_seat_APPLIES_HERE": {
   "slope": 13.11468960619952,
   "ci": [
    9.308466409216585,
    16.920912803182453
   ],
   "n": 98
  },
  "incumbent_NOT_APPLICABLE": {
   "slope": -13.616885390751582,
   "ci": [
    -16.192796586248058,
    -11.040974195255108
   ],
   "n": 193
  }
 },
 "musk_money": {
  "reported_range_usd": [
   100000000.0,
   200000000.0
  ],
  "source": "WIRED, per Trump officials briefed on the matter (as reported by Political Wire 2026-08-19 and San Antonio Current 2026-08-18/19); described as national midterm spend focused on 'key races, including Texas' -- no Texas-specific dollar figure has been reported",
  "ratio_to_paxton_own_committee_spend": {
   "low_vs_paxton_disbursements": 13.345940478135775,
   "high_vs_paxton_disbursements": 26.69188095627155,
   "low_vs_paxton_receipts": 10.81233210009279,
   "high_vs_paxton_receipts": 21.62466420018558,
   "low_vs_combined_committee_spend": 1.8348391377408917,
   "high_vs_combined_committee_spend": 3.6696782754817834
  }
 },
 "polling_context": {
  "note": "seven poll aggregators, Talarico ahead by 1.2-2.0 pts, avg +1.6, as of 2026-08-13 (Texas Tribune poll tracker); 11 of 12 individual polls with a stated MOE show a lead inside that MOE -- a statistical tie",
  "talarico_avg_lead_pts": 1.6
 }
}