{
 "n_elections": 42,
 "n_key_cells": 546,
 "span": [
  1860,
  2024
 ],
 "n_objective_keys": 6,
 "n_judgment_keys": 7,
 "threshold": 6,
 "margin_full": {
  "n": 42,
  "slope": -3.452914876108623,
  "intercept": 20.100417847673043,
  "r2": 0.5698340615317243,
  "p": 7.683231857807856e-09,
  "se": 0.4743508498950673,
  "ci": [
   -4.4116137052024085,
   -2.494216047014837
  ],
  "zero_crossing": 5.82128971286019
 },
 "margin_modern": {
  "n": 19,
  "slope": -3.1370218839200756,
  "intercept": 20.280171265461465,
  "r2": 0.5755633173392374,
  "p": 0.00016638024871871068,
  "se": 0.6533606729384295,
  "ci": [
   -4.515492409629232,
   -1.7585513582109191
  ],
  "zero_crossing": 6.46478475952454
 },
 "logit_pv": {
  "n": 42,
  "coef": -1.9640942549671692,
  "se": 0.6984089137498597,
  "odds_ratio": 0.1402828896214279,
  "or_ci": [
   0.035686752913169105,
   0.5514452146548666
  ],
  "p": 0.00491976106458325,
  "fifty_pct_crossing": 5.52826352771817
 },
 "threshold_check": {
  "published_rule_breaks_at": 6,
  "margin_fit_zero_crossing_full": 5.82128971286019,
  "margin_fit_zero_crossing_modern": 6.46478475952454,
  "logistic_fifty_pct_crossing": 5.52826352771817
 },
 "record": {
  "prospective_popular_vote": {
   "n": 11,
   "correct": 9,
   "misses": [
    2016,
    2024
   ]
  },
  "prospective_presidency": {
   "n": 11,
   "correct": 9,
   "misses": [
    2000,
    2024
   ]
  },
  "retrospective_popular_vote": {
   "n": 31,
   "correct": 31,
   "misses": []
  },
  "retrospective_presidency": {
   "n": 31,
   "correct": 29,
   "misses": [
    1876,
    1888
   ]
  }
 },
 "per_key": [
  {
   "key": "1 Party mandate",
   "column": "party_mandate",
   "kind": "objective",
   "false_rate": 0.6666666666666666,
   "variance": 0.22222222222222224,
   "solo_accuracy_vs_pv": 0.6428571428571429
  },
  {
   "key": "2 No primary contest",
   "column": "no_primary_contest",
   "kind": "objective",
   "false_rate": 0.30952380952380953,
   "variance": 0.213718820861678,
   "solo_accuracy_vs_pv": 0.8095238095238095
  },
  {
   "key": "3 Incumbent running",
   "column": "incumbent_seeking_reelection",
   "kind": "objective",
   "false_rate": 0.40476190476190477,
   "variance": 0.2409297052154195,
   "solo_accuracy_vs_pv": 0.6666666666666666
  },
  {
   "key": "4 No third party",
   "column": "no_third_party",
   "kind": "objective",
   "false_rate": 0.21428571428571427,
   "variance": 0.1683673469387755,
   "solo_accuracy_vs_pv": 0.6666666666666666
  },
  {
   "key": "5 Short-term economy",
   "column": "strong_short_term_economy",
   "kind": "objective",
   "false_rate": 0.23809523809523808,
   "variance": 0.18140589569160995,
   "solo_accuracy_vs_pv": 0.8333333333333334
  },
  {
   "key": "6 Long-term economy",
   "column": "strong_long_term_economy",
   "kind": "objective",
   "false_rate": 0.4523809523809524,
   "variance": 0.2477324263038549,
   "solo_accuracy_vs_pv": 0.6666666666666666
  },
  {
   "key": "7 Major policy change",
   "column": "major_policy_change",
   "kind": "judgment",
   "false_rate": 0.5238095238095238,
   "variance": 0.2494331065759637,
   "solo_accuracy_vs_pv": 0.6428571428571429
  },
  {
   "key": "8 No social unrest",
   "column": "no_social_unrest",
   "kind": "judgment",
   "false_rate": 0.2619047619047619,
   "variance": 0.1933106575963719,
   "solo_accuracy_vs_pv": 0.6666666666666666
  },
  {
   "key": "9 No scandal",
   "column": "no_scandal",
   "kind": "judgment",
   "false_rate": 0.14285714285714285,
   "variance": 0.12244897959183673,
   "solo_accuracy_vs_pv": 0.6428571428571429
  },
  {
   "key": "10 No foreign/military failure",
   "column": "no_foreign_military_failure",
   "kind": "judgment",
   "false_rate": 0.2857142857142857,
   "variance": 0.20408163265306123,
   "solo_accuracy_vs_pv": 0.6904761904761905
  },
  {
   "key": "11 Foreign/military success",
   "column": "major_foreign_military_success",
   "kind": "judgment",
   "false_rate": 0.47619047619047616,
   "variance": 0.2494331065759637,
   "solo_accuracy_vs_pv": 0.6904761904761905
  },
  {
   "key": "12 Charismatic incumbent",
   "column": "charismatic_incumbent",
   "kind": "judgment",
   "false_rate": 0.7619047619047619,
   "variance": 0.18140589569161,
   "solo_accuracy_vs_pv": 0.5476190476190477
  },
  {
   "key": "13 Uncharismatic challenger",
   "column": "uncharismatic_challenger",
   "kind": "judgment",
   "false_rate": 0.14285714285714285,
   "variance": 0.12244897959183673,
   "solo_accuracy_vs_pv": 0.6904761904761905
  }
 ],
 "knife_edge_elections": [
  1992,
  1996,
  2000,
  2016
 ],
 "min_flips_by_year": {
  "1984": 4,
  "1988": 3,
  "1992": 1,
  "1996": 1,
  "2000": 1,
  "2004": 2,
  "2008": 4,
  "2012": 3,
  "2016": 1,
  "2020": 2,
  "2024": 2
 },
 "fragility": {
  "popular_vote": {
   "0.00": {
    "mean_correct": 9.0,
    "p_at_least_9": 1.0,
    "p_at_least_10": 0.0,
    "distribution": {
     "9": 20000
    }
   },
   "0.05": {
    "mean_correct": 8.7625,
    "p_at_least_9": 0.70905,
    "p_at_least_10": 0.0935,
    "distribution": {
     "6": 39,
     "7": 755,
     "8": 5025,
     "9": 12311,
     "10": 1838,
     "11": 32
    }
   },
   "0.10": {
    "mean_correct": 8.58645,
    "p_at_least_9": 0.57485,
    "p_at_least_10": 0.1198,
    "distribution": {
     "5": 13,
     "6": 212,
     "7": 1797,
     "8": 6481,
     "9": 9101,
     "10": 2300,
     "11": 96
    }
   },
   "0.15": {
    "mean_correct": 8.448,
    "p_at_least_9": 0.50255,
    "p_at_least_10": 0.12835,
    "distribution": {
     "3": 1,
     "4": 4,
     "5": 64,
     "6": 508,
     "7": 2633,
     "8": 6739,
     "9": 7484,
     "10": 2363,
     "11": 204
    }
   },
   "0.20": {
    "mean_correct": 8.32095,
    "p_at_least_9": 0.45125,
    "p_at_least_10": 0.12745,
    "distribution": {
     "4": 12,
     "5": 135,
     "6": 861,
     "7": 3238,
     "8": 6729,
     "9": 6476,
     "10": 2291,
     "11": 258
    }
   }
  },
  "presidency": {
   "0.00": {
    "mean_correct": 9.0,
    "p_at_least_9": 1.0,
    "p_at_least_10": 0.0,
    "distribution": {
     "9": 20000
    }
   },
   "0.05": {
    "mean_correct": 8.7556,
    "p_at_least_9": 0.7058,
    "p_at_least_10": 0.0894,
    "distribution": {
     "6": 40,
     "7": 741,
     "8": 5103,
     "9": 12328,
     "10": 1759,
     "11": 29
    }
   },
   "0.10": {
    "mean_correct": 8.58155,
    "p_at_least_9": 0.5721,
    "p_at_least_10": 0.1206,
    "distribution": {
     "5": 10,
     "6": 227,
     "7": 1853,
     "8": 6468,
     "9": 9030,
     "10": 2298,
     "11": 114
    }
   },
   "0.15": {
    "mean_correct": 8.4516,
    "p_at_least_9": 0.5047,
    "p_at_least_10": 0.1262,
    "distribution": {
     "5": 50,
     "6": 515,
     "7": 2586,
     "8": 6755,
     "9": 7570,
     "10": 2344,
     "11": 180
    }
   },
   "0.20": {
    "mean_correct": 8.33735,
    "p_at_least_9": 0.457,
    "p_at_least_10": 0.1284,
    "distribution": {
     "4": 9,
     "5": 129,
     "6": 825,
     "7": 3147,
     "8": 6750,
     "9": 6572,
     "10": 2309,
     "11": 259
    }
   }
  },
  "per_election_flip_rate_p10": {
   "1984": 0.0015,
   "1988": 0.00745,
   "1992": 0.11465,
   "1996": 0.2685,
   "2000": 0.18525,
   "2004": 0.03845,
   "2008": 0.0004,
   "2012": 0.0133,
   "2016": 0.1877,
   "2020": 0.0395,
   "2024": 0.06775
  }
 },
 "n_draws": 20000,
 "bootstrap": {
  "n": 4000,
  "median": -3.4458913718391946,
  "share_below_zero": 1.0,
  "pct": [
   -4.406630590378854,
   -2.650379742109579
  ]
 },
 "seed": 5040814
}
