{
  "run": "501-fed-put",
  "as_of": "2026-08-12",
  "source": "FRED keyless csv endpoint: DFEDTARU + DFEDTARL (Federal Funds Target Range, daily, since 2008-12-16) for the rate-change event list; SP500 (S&P 500, daily close, FRED's own coverage since 2016-08-12) for forward returns.",
  "n_events_total_since_2016": 30,
  "date_range": [
    "2016-12-14",
    "2025-12-11"
  ],
  "n_cuts": 11,
  "n_hikes": 19,
  "specs_all_events": {
    "fwd1": {
      "n": 30,
      "slope": -8.6e-05,
      "r2": 0.0497,
      "p": 0.5938188340688635,
      "slope_ci95": [
        -0.0004,
        0.000229
      ]
    },
    "fwd5": {
      "n": 30,
      "slope": 0.000353,
      "r2": 0.1952,
      "p": 0.05917152087007204,
      "slope_ci95": [
        -1.4e-05,
        0.000719
      ]
    },
    "fwd21": {
      "n": 28,
      "slope": -3.3e-05,
      "r2": 0.0005,
      "p": 0.9553194934564315,
      "slope_ci95": [
        -0.001202,
        0.001136
      ]
    }
  },
  "specs_excluding_covid_cuts": {
    "fwd1": {
      "n": 28,
      "slope": 3e-06,
      "r2": 0.0001,
      "p": 0.9634405820115319,
      "slope_ci95": [
        -0.000113,
        0.000119
      ]
    },
    "fwd5": {
      "n": 28,
      "slope": 0.000108,
      "r2": 0.0275,
      "p": 0.5256756463207737,
      "slope_ci95": [
        -0.000225,
        0.00044
      ]
    },
    "fwd21": {
      "n": 26,
      "slope": 0.000156,
      "r2": 0.0249,
      "p": 0.40402824793391523,
      "slope_ci95": [
        -0.000211,
        0.000524
      ]
    }
  },
  "group_comparison": {
    "fwd1": {
      "n_cuts": 11,
      "n_hikes": 19,
      "mean_cuts": 0.00275,
      "mean_hikes": 3e-05,
      "diff": 0.00272,
      "diff_ci95": [
        -0.01308,
        0.01853
      ],
      "p": 0.7162174086633344
    },
    "fwd5": {
      "n_cuts": 11,
      "n_hikes": 19,
      "mean_cuts": -0.01903,
      "mean_hikes": 0.00248,
      "diff": -0.02152,
      "diff_ci95": [
        -0.05143,
        0.00839
      ],
      "p": 0.14572883640865236
    },
    "fwd21": {
      "n_cuts": 11,
      "n_hikes": 17,
      "mean_cuts": 0.00858,
      "mean_hikes": 0.01655,
      "diff": -0.00797,
      "diff_ci95": [
        -0.06929,
        0.05335
      ],
      "p": 0.7838455107838311
    }
  },
  "covid_emergency_cuts": [
    {
      "date": "2020-03-04",
      "bps": -50.0,
      "fwd1": -0.03392202215889484,
      "fwd5": -0.12419332166178931,
      "fwd21": -0.19271465630710638
    },
    {
      "date": "2020-03-16",
      "bps": -100.0,
      "fwd1": 0.05995482224354909,
      "fwd5": -0.06233105488804047,
      "fwd21": 0.19275144271267686
    }
  ],
  "events": [
    {
      "date": "2016-12-14",
      "bps": 25.0,
      "direction": "hike",
      "fwd1": 0.003883228005396644,
      "fwd5": 0.005281190087339294,
      "fwd21": 0.007615564865440572
    },
    {
      "date": "2017-03-16",
      "bps": 25.0,
      "direction": "hike",
      "fwd1": -0.0013143639402364293,
      "fwd5": -0.014873728678329368,
      "fwd21": NaN
    },
    {
      "date": "2017-06-15",
      "bps": 25.0,
      "direction": "hike",
      "fwd1": 0.00028366345181418673,
      "fwd5": 0.0008386571618854699,
      "fwd21": 0.01102176397556387
    },
    {
      "date": "2017-12-14",
      "bps": 25.0,
      "direction": "hike",
      "fwd1": 0.008974325134520456,
      "fwd5": 0.012277480099999627,
      "fwd21": 0.05061443961372669
    },
    {
      "date": "2018-03-22",
      "bps": 25.0,
      "direction": "hike",
      "fwd1": -0.020966906104724736,
      "fwd5": -0.0010666908752540172,
      "fwd21": 0.010004955195200615
    },
    {
      "date": "2018-06-14",
      "bps": 25.0,
      "direction": "hike",
      "fwd1": -0.0010170746345898873,
      "fwd5": -0.011762845508878628,
      "fwd21": 0.006763726015187821
    },
    {
      "date": "2018-09-27",
      "bps": 25.0,
      "direction": "hike",
      "fwd1": -6.863417982172493e-06,
      "fwd5": -0.00425188743994509,
      "fwd21": -0.08761496225120113
    },
    {
      "date": "2018-12-20",
      "bps": 25.0,
      "direction": "hike",
      "fwd1": -0.020588306814405377,
      "fwd5": 0.008677079702685386,
      "fwd21": 0.08238970260433964
    },
    {
      "date": "2019-08-01",
      "bps": -25.0,
      "direction": "cut",
      "fwd1": -0.0072827367651240316,
      "fwd5": -0.005237746990072956,
      "fwd21": -0.009175368030444608
    },
    {
      "date": "2019-09-19",
      "bps": -25.0,
      "direction": "cut",
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      "fwd5": -0.009701375885911578,
      "fwd21": -0.006847834401471409
    },
    {
      "date": "2019-10-31",
      "bps": -25.0,
      "direction": "cut",
      "fwd1": 0.009662360578885698,
      "fwd5": 0.015677056584890492,
      "fwd21": 0.03404706409091518
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    {
      "date": "2020-03-04",
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      "fwd5": -0.12419332166178931,
      "fwd21": -0.19271465630710638
    },
    {
      "date": "2020-03-16",
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      "fwd5": -0.06233105488804047,
      "fwd21": 0.19275144271267686
    },
    {
      "date": "2022-03-17",
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      "direction": "hike",
      "fwd1": 0.011662250349640857,
      "fwd5": 0.024591594566230057,
      "fwd21": NaN
    },
    {
      "date": "2022-05-05",
      "bps": 50.0,
      "direction": "hike",
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      "fwd5": -0.05227798315355914,
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    {
      "date": "2022-07-28",
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      "direction": "hike",
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      "fwd5": 0.019523969718325374,
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      "date": "2022-09-22",
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    {
      "date": "2022-11-03",
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      "date": "2023-02-02",
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      "date": "2024-09-19",
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      "date": "2024-11-08",
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      "date": "2025-09-18",
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      "date": "2025-10-30",
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    {
      "date": "2025-12-11",
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  ]
}