{
  "run": "039-oscar-longevity",
  "as_of": "2026-08-09",
  "source": "Wikidata SPARQL (query.wikidata.org) -- every P1411 (nominated for) and P166 (award received) statement for the four acting Academy Awards (Best Actor Q103916, Best Actress Q103618, Best Supporting Actor Q106291, Best Supporting Actress Q106301), folded to one row per person with birth/death dates. Compare: Redelmeier DA, Singh SM. Annals of Internal Medicine 2001;134(10):955-962 (claim). Sylvestre MP, Huszti E, Hanley JA. J R Stat Soc A 2006 (the immortal-time-bias critique this run mechanically reproduces).",
  "n_total_nominees": 995,
  "n_deceased_dated": 522,
  "posthumous_excluded": [
    {
      "label": "James Dean",
      "first_nom_year": 1956,
      "death_year": 1955
    },
    {
      "label": "Massimo Troisi",
      "first_nom_year": 1996,
      "death_year": 1994
    },
    {
      "label": "Chadwick Boseman",
      "first_nom_year": 2021,
      "death_year": 2020
    }
  ],
  "n_won": 164,
  "n_lost": 358,
  "stage1_naive_birth_anchored": {
    "n": 522,
    "slope": 2.7595,
    "intercept": 75.6116,
    "r2": 0.008,
    "p": 0.04160480567629371,
    "slope_ci95": [
      0.1053,
      5.4136
    ]
  },
  "stage2_naive_plus_birth_year": {
    "n": 522,
    "r2": 0.0315,
    "const": 306.166,
    "ever_won": {
      "coef": 2.309,
      "se": 1.3422,
      "p": 0.085971523486567,
      "ci95": [
        -0.3278,
        4.9459
      ]
    },
    "birth_year": {
      "coef": -0.1203,
      "se": 0.0339,
      "p": 0.0004225851753483223,
      "ci95": [
        -0.187,
        -0.0537
      ]
    }
  },
  "stage3_landmark_raw": {
    "n": 522,
    "slope": 2.8253,
    "intercept": 33.2652,
    "r2": 0.0057,
    "p": 0.0853801924993237,
    "slope_ci95": [
      -0.395,
      6.0457
    ]
  },
  "stage3b_landmark_plus_birth_year": {
    "n": 522,
    "r2": 0.0575,
    "const": -381.6239,
    "ever_won": {
      "coef": 3.6359,
      "se": 1.6047,
      "p": 0.02387554927900548,
      "ci95": [
        0.4834,
        6.7884
      ]
    },
    "birth_year": {
      "coef": 0.2166,
      "se": 0.0405,
      "p": 1.3841445589690693e-07,
      "ci95": [
        0.1369,
        0.2962
      ]
    }
  },
  "stage4_landmark_plus_birth_year_plus_nom_count": {
    "n": 522,
    "r2": 0.1047,
    "const": -379.0876,
    "ever_won": {
      "coef": -0.1814,
      "se": 1.7275,
      "p": 0.9164156939511896,
      "ci95": [
        -3.5751,
        3.2123
      ]
    },
    "birth_year": {
      "coef": 0.2133,
      "se": 0.0396,
      "p": 1.0578725140319989e-07,
      "ci95": [
        0.1356,
        0.291
      ]
    },
    "n_noms": {
      "coef": 2.6784,
      "se": 0.5124,
      "p": 2.5040339601822836e-07,
      "ci95": [
        1.6717,
        3.6851
      ]
    }
  },
  "stage5_clean_subsample": {
    "n": 336,
    "n_won": 54,
    "n_lost": 282,
    "ols_fit": {
      "n": 336,
      "slope": -0.9743,
      "intercept": 32.4452,
      "r2": 0.0004,
      "p": 0.7041164306450617,
      "slope_ci95": [
        -6.0166,
        4.068
      ]
    },
    "welch_diff": -0.974,
    "welch_ci95": [
      -5.504,
      3.555
    ],
    "welch_p": 0.6699630283983171
  },
  "nom_count_gap": {
    "won_mean": 2.787,
    "lost_mean": 1.366,
    "pct_single_nom_won": 32.9,
    "pct_single_nom_lost": 78.8
  },
  "age_at_first_nom_single_nom": {
    "won_mean": 48.48,
    "lost_mean": 42.61,
    "diff": 5.87,
    "p": 0.008209822050977575
  },
  "late_career_win_examples": [
    {
      "label": "George Burns",
      "age_at_first_nom": 80,
      "age_at_death": 100.1
    },
    {
      "label": "Peggy Ashcroft",
      "age_at_first_nom": 78,
      "age_at_death": 83.5
    },
    {
      "label": "Don Ameche",
      "age_at_first_nom": 78,
      "age_at_death": 85.5
    }
  ],
  "young_win_examples": [
    {
      "label": "Patty Duke",
      "age_at_first_nom": 17,
      "age_at_death": 69.3
    },
    {
      "label": "Miyoshi Umeki",
      "age_at_first_nom": 29,
      "age_at_death": 78.3
    },
    {
      "label": "Sandy Dennis",
      "age_at_first_nom": 30,
      "age_at_death": 54.8
    }
  ]
}